Saturday, December 22, 2012
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Monday, February 27, 2012
0923 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley short USD/JPY stop triggered at 81.65 amid a wave of short covering, as the pair hit highs of 81.66 during Asian trading. "Though the BoJ has become more aggressive in its policy stance, we do not believe that this will meaningfully turn the downtrend in USD/JPY," says the bank. "As yields globally remain low, domestic investors are likely to continue currency-hedging their foreign positions, keeping the pressure on the downside, in our view. As such, we aim to resell the cross, albeit at higher levels," it adds. The bank is now entering 82.20, with a 83.10 and a 77.75 target. USD/JPY trades at 80.93. (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 27, 2012 04:23 ET (09:23 GMT)2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
0901 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY long-term downtrend is over says Barclays Capital after managing a close Friday above its weekly cloud for the first time since 2007. The bank says such price action over the past 10 years has resulted in follow-through price action for 1-2 years. Now at 81.00 BarCap has targets of 84.50, 85.50 and then 87.00. (email@example.com)
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Yen: Surprise weakening only due to BoJ?
The BoJ’s announcement that it will pursue an explicit inflation target and further expand asset purchases was fully unanticipated on the markets, and thus came with a surprise effect, as it also sharply weakened the yen. The improvement of the economic outlook in the US (leading to yield increases supporting the dollar, on the short end reinforced by operation twist) and a general decrease of risk aversion also supported the dollar, while the euro benefitted even more from a slight relaxation about the Eurozone debt crisis.
The last movement set in very rapidly and surprisingly, as is often the case with the yen; the more important question remains to what extent this movement is sustainable. The USDJPY exchange rate seems currently still in line with an (increased) rate differential, which might also lead to a buildup of carry trades by the Japanese or abroad (especially in the context of the BoJ now expected to ease more aggressively). This in turn exerts weakening pressure on the yen. In our opinion, the yen could easily approach USDJPY 85 (instead of our forecast of 80) by year-end, as both would be roughly in line with our expected rate differential and not too far from the fair value at USDJPY 78. A weakening much beyond that seems unlikely from a fundamental point of view, however – unless the BoJ were to become much more aggressive. It is also worth mentioning that the yen has already shown sudden and sometimes persistent movements away from fundamentals (especially in the context of carry trades) in the past, so that the exchange rate is currently surrounded by particularly high uncertainty, in our opinion.
Friday, February 17, 2012
1. At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan made the
(1) The Bank publishes "the price stability goal in the medium to long term" as the inflation
rate consistent with price stability sustainable in the medium to long term.
judges "the price stability goal in the medium to long term" to be within a positive range
of 2 percent or lower in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI and, more
specifically, sets a goal at 1 percent for the time being.
(2) For the time being, the Bank will pursue powerful monetary easing by conducting its
virtually zero interest rate policy and by implementing the Asset Purchase Program
mainly through the purchase of financial assets, with the aim of achieving the goal of 1
percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI. The Bank will continue
pursuing the powerful easing until it judges that the 1 percent goal is in sight on the
condition that the Bank does not identify any significant risk, including the accumulation
of financial imbalances, from the viewpoint of ensuring sustainable economic growth.